Tunisia, Egypt… Palestine?

In a year all the political scene in this area may have changed. Pan-Arabism exists still somehow", as some members of the presidential office of Mahmoud Abbas have explained. The expressions of support for the forces for democratic change in Egypt have been strongly suppressed in both Gaza and the West Bank, but not those that have taken place in Ramallah in support of the Mubarak regime have been suppressed.

Neither the government of Fatah nor the government of Hamas viewed favorably that the same winds of change of its neighboring country unleash in Palestine; sadly one of the few things they share. The popular exhaustion before the injustice promoted or condoned by governments that fuels riots in Tunisia and Egypt is also present in Gaza and West Bank. Hamas responds by stepping up the border with Egypt to prevent the flow of revolutionary side to side. The survival of Gaza, almost entirely dependent on trade through the tunnels to Egypt, is experiencing strong rationing, fuel shortage, soaring of food prices. And while staring at Tahrir Square, are anger, excitement and hope what people are feeding.

For its part, Israel notes with concern what happens to its main ally in the area. For the first time since the peace accords with Egypt in 1979, Israel has increased the number of troops in the Sinai Peninsula, a zone that was demilitarized for security reasons, now safer full of soldiers. Meanwhile, the Abbas government has softened its initial support for Mubarak, but has set up a policy of control and repression over the demonstrations; it has announced local elections for next May and presidential elections immediately. They are promises that only few believe, since election ads have occurred since his term expired in 2009. He does not realize that the promises of politicians do not feed the poor anymore; they have not done it in Tunisia nor in Egypt.

The Abbas's presidential office may pay dearly for its position. The protesters for democratic change in Egypt endure the pulse prepared by the U.S., a transitional government with Vice President Omar Suleiman (new strongman for the U.S. and former head of Egyptian intelligence services) leaders and members of the opposition preparing democratic elections for September. If the base of the transition is similar to that of Tunisia, with a greater presence of the opposition in the government of change, the unconditional support of Israel would be reduced. But without breaking the peace agreements of 1979, it might provide an opening of the border with Gaza without Israeli control of it. That scenario would leave the West Bank, the negotiating part in the Palestinian conflict, isolated, and Gaza with an international border open and without any Israeli inside the Gaza Strip. The revolutionary spirit could be used by Hamas to overthrow the government of Fatah, fueled by the recent "Palestinian Wikileaks" scandals, but it would not help in the fight against the occupation and can lead to another period of internal confrontation in Palestine similar to the 2007.

Anyway, the political speculation and the scenarios depend on these moments of popular will and without its permission, nothing happens. In this vein, Palestinian civil society is organizing itself to hold joint events in Gaza and the West Bank, both tired of their governments, but focused on ending the occupation. Yesterday, the Popular Resistance Committees sent a manifesto supporting the Egyptian people and today, all demonstrations against the occupation that take place every Friday as part of the nonviolent resistance movement, have as their main message the solidarity with the revolution of their neighbors. On Friday (Fridays are already called in Egypt "The day of departure"), might be, with the permission of people, the first day of the change in Palestine.

Jerusalem, January 2011